A field guide to the ways reasoning breaks
Distraction and distortion
Also called Ad hoc reasoning
Adding an unsupported excuse after the fact to save a claim that failed.
The prediction failed because conditions were unusual that day.
Ask whether the excuse was predicted in advance or invented after the failure.
From the Latin 'ad hoc', 'for this (purpose only)' — a fix made up for the occasion. Logicians use 'ad hoc rescue' for a patch added after a claim has failed, invented solely to keep the claim alive.
The horoscope app said I'd have a lucky week and I got a parking ticket instead — the astrologer replied that my rising sign must have interfered.
A startup's growth forecast missed by half; the founder explains that their kind of company simply can't be measured by ordinary metrics.
A healer's remedy fails to help the patient, so the healer announces it only works on people who truly believe in it.
The watchlist said the stock would double in six months; when it fell, the analyst added that 'smart money' had deliberately suppressed it.