fallacy.wiki

A field guide to the ways reasoning breaks

Evidence and sampling

Cherry picking

Also called Suppressed evidence, incomplete evidence

What it is

Presenting only the data that supports a position while leaving out the rest.

In the wild

This one quarter was strong, so the strategy works.

How to answer it

Ask for the full series, including the periods that were left out.

In depth

Origin and naming

The English idiom 'cherry-pick' comes from fruit picking: take the ripest cherries, leave the rest on the tree. In logic the older name is the fallacy of suppressed evidence — the half-truth offered as the whole truth. It is the standard operating procedure of selective quotation in both advertising and polemic.

More places it shows up

  1. A supplement ad cites the one small trial that found a benefit and never mentions the four larger trials that found none.

  2. A city official defends a traffic policy by quoting the single winter week with fewer accidents, cropping out the eleven months that came after.

  3. A pundit claims a country's economy is booming by pointing to its stock index, leaving out wages, inflation, and the currency slide.

  4. A product manager announces 'engagement is up' and shows daily active users for the launch week, cutting the chart before the drop that followed.

How to spot it

  • The chart ends or starts at a suspiciously neat date. Ask what was on either side of the cut.
  • Only one study, one week, one metric is ever named. The plural never shows up.
  • When the missing context is supplied, the story quietly changes tone from triumph to 'well, it depends'.

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